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Anti-crisis program of the Russian government: GDP to rise 3.1% and inflation to be curbed at 6.5—7.5%

January 11, 2010 | PRIME-TASS via Banki.ru

Russia’s gross domestic product (GDP) could grow around 3.1% in 2010. At the same time provided that anti-crisis and economic makeover measures are carried out efficiently, short-term problems of the economy are solved, there is room for fast comeback to 5—6% of GDP growth. Overall, this year the inflation rate could run 6.5—7.5%, said “Primary Areas of Anti-Crisis Measures of the Russian Government for 2010” which got approval at the Cabinet’s December 30 meeting.

Fixed asset investments will resume growth in 2010, up 2.9%. High commodity prices will contribute not only to pushing up exporters’ earnings, but also, as a whole, to reducing risks and boosting investment aspirations. Lending terms are expected to be tangibly eased in the second half of the year. Apart from cash injections into the commodities sector, investments are expected to rise on the back of heavier cash flows into agriculture, transport (including pipelines and highways) and telecommunications.

Growth of investment and external demand will become a footing for restoration of the industrial price index which would improve 2.8% in 2010. A 3.5% expansion of processing businesses will make a considerable contribution to industrial development.

The inflation rate will go gradually down. In the second half of the year it will remain quite modest (6—7% on an annualized basis) due to still high demand restrictions and forecast appreciation of the ruble’s exchange rates. A decline in prices for grain harvested in 2009 will also act as a restraint. Once the economy recovers and demand revives, consumer prices could keep growing.

As inflation will moderate in 2010—2012 and the economy will expand at a faster rate, as a whole real wagers in the specified period will rise by 6.5%. Moderating inflation will push up real disposable personal income by 3% in 2010. Meanwhile, growth in pensioners’ income will make a substantial contribution. Unemployment will remain stable in 2010, down by an average to 6.3 mln or 8.6% of the economically active population.

In 2010 consumer demand will also begin to recover, first and foremost, on the back of the measures to index social benefits and payments, increasing income of pensioners, and also the restoration of pre-crisis wages in the commercial sector owing to growing production volumes and slower inflation. Overall, during the year consumer demand will rise 3.3%. In subsequent years demand will be buoyed by rising wages and restarted lending.

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