Morocco Government Bond Yield Curve

FAQ

• What conclusions about future interest rates can be drawn from the slope of the yield curve?

  
  The slope of the yield curve provides information about the likely future path of interest rates and borrowing costs through four main configurations:
  

  • A normal slope suggests a gradual increase in, or stability of, interest rates. The current monetary-policy stance is viewed as appropriate, while further increases would be expected only if growth accelerated above potential; accordingly, long-term rates are higher than short-term rates.
  • An inversion signals an expected rate-cutting cycle, as market participants assume that currently elevated short-term rates are restrictive, will cool the economy, and will prompt the central bank to reduce rates in the near term.
  • A flat profile reflects expectations that rates will remain high for an extended period or uncertainty about the central bank’s next step. In other words, the market sees no basis for either a sharp rise or a rapid decline in rates, leaving the gap between short- and long-term expectations minimal.
  • A humped curve implies a volatile trajectory: rates first rise or remain near their peak over the medium term, before declining materially at the long end as economic conditions normalise.

• Which points on the curve are the key indicators of future economic developments?

  
  The choice of tenor combination depends on the forecasting objective. For inflation analysis, the forecast horizon should correspond to the maturity gap; a standard example is the 5Y–1Y spread for a five-year horizon. For assessing future economic activity, it is generally more effective to use the widest spread available on the curve, i.e. the difference between the longest and shortest tenors. The 10Y–2Y spread is the standard benchmark in this context. Because broad spreads are highly correlated, one may generally be substituted for another without materially reducing forecast quality.

• How do short- and long-term tenors differ in terms of the information they convey?

  
  The curve spans a range from 3 months to 15 years and comprises 6 tenor points.
  - The short-end segment (3–6 months) is influenced by banking-system liquidity and monetary policy, enabling changes in funding costs and policy-rate expectations to be tracked.
  - The long-end segment (2–15 years) reflects both medium-term economic expectations and deeper structural trends.

• When are the new Morocco yield curve values published?

  
  Curve values are published on each business day for the previous trading day. For example, data for 6 May 2026 are published on 7 May 2026.