Sri Lanka Government Bond Yield Curve

FAQ

• How should different yield curve shapes be interpreted in the context of economic expectations?

  
  The shape of the yield curve is a key indicator of market expectations for future economic growth and monetary policy. Four main configurations are generally distinguished:
  

  • A normal curve signals expectations of sustained GDP growth, moderate inflation, and a neutral or more accommodative central-bank stance in the future. Long-term rates exceed short-term rates because investors demand a risk premium for holding longer-dated assets.
  • An inverted curve is a classic leading indicator of recession: the market prices in aggressive future cuts to the policy rate in response to an expected economic slowdown or crisis, causing short-term rates to rise above long-term rates.
  • A flat curve indicates uncertainty or a transition between expansion and contraction, or expectations that the central bank will pause after a rate-hiking cycle. The spread between long- and short-term rates becomes minimal.
  • A humped curve indicates expectations of temporary policy tightening or a medium-term inflation surge, followed by a return to lower rates and greater stability over the long term. Rates in the middle segment exceed those at both the short and long ends of the yield curve.

• Which spreads between curve tenors best reflect macroeconomic expectations in Sri Lanka?

  
  Macroeconomic analysis should distinguish between forecasting objectives. For inflation forecasting, maturities should closely match the relevant forecast horizons; for example, the 5Y–1Y spread can be used to assess the difference between inflation expected over the next five years and inflation expected over the next year. For forecasting real economic activity, empirical evidence generally favours the spread between the longest and shortest available tenors on the yield curve; in practice, the difference between 10-year and 2-year yields is often used.

• What are the key characteristics of the short and long ends of the curve within its available tenor range?

  
  The curve spans 3 months to 15 years and includes 13 points in total.
  - The short-end segment (3 months–1 year) serves as an indicator of current monetary conditions. The tenor density enables track changes in funding costs and monetary-policy expectations.
  - The mid-curve segment (2–7 years) reflects expectations for the economic cycle and inflation over the medium term.
  - The long-end segment (7–15 years) is shaped by fundamental factors such as long-term inflation expectations and the risk premium. Yields beyond 10 years reflect investors’ expectations regarding the macroeconomic stability of the country.

• What is the publication lag for Sri Lanka yield curve data?

  
  yield curve values are published on the second business day after the trading date. Some tenors may be updated periodically. For example, data for trading on 5 May 2026 are published on 7 May 2026.