Turkey Government Bond Yield Curve

FAQ

• What conclusions about future interest rates can be drawn from the slope of the yield curve?

  
  The slope of the yield curve provides information about the likely future path of interest rates and borrowing costs through four main configurations:
  

  • A normal slope suggests a gradual increase in, or stability of, interest rates. The current monetary-policy stance is viewed as appropriate, while further increases would be expected only if growth accelerated above potential; accordingly, long-term rates are higher than short-term rates.
  • An inversion signals an expected rate-cutting cycle, as market participants assume that currently elevated short-term rates are restrictive, will cool the economy, and will prompt the central bank to reduce rates in the near term.
  • A flat profile reflects expectations that rates will remain high for an extended period or uncertainty about the central bank’s next step. In other words, the market sees no basis for either a sharp rise or a rapid decline in rates, leaving the gap between short- and long-term expectations minimal.
  • A humped curve implies a volatile trajectory: rates first rise or remain near their peak over the medium term, before declining materially at the long end as economic conditions normalise.

• Which points on the curve are the key indicators of future economic developments?

  
  For inflation forecasting, maturities should be aligned with the forecast horizon; for example, the 5Y–1Y spread reflects inflation expectations over the next five years relative to the next year. For forecasting economic activity, the preferred measure is the spread between a long-term rate, typically the 10-year yield, and a short-term rate. Where standard tenors are unavailable, the same principle can be adapted by using the difference between the longest and shortest points available on the curve. Major broad spreads tend to move together, so substituting one for another does not materially change the overall signal.

• How do short- and long-term tenors differ in terms of the information they convey?

  
  The curve spans a range from 3 months to 10 years and comprises 7 tenor points.
  - The 3-month–1-year segment is influenced by banking-system liquidity and monetary policy.
  - The 2–10-year segment reflects medium-term economic expectations rather than deep structural trends.

• When are the new Türkiye yield curve values published?

  
  Curve values are published on each business day for the previous trading day. For example, data for 6 May 2026 are published on 7 May 2026.